Back in November 2012 Australia’s Liberal-National coalition, under the leadership of then opposition leader Tony Abbott, pledged should they take office at the 2013 federal election they would create one million jobs within five years.
It was an ambitious target, but an achievable one given job growth at-and-above the required level has been seen in Australia before.
21 months into their term in office, it’s time to see how the jobs pledge is progressing. Those of you who are cricket fans may recognise this. It’s a run-rate chart.
Instead of chasing an opposition’s score it compares how job growth is progressing compared to the coalition’s five-year pledge.
After a terrible start — employment actually fell in the months after they took office — the “run chase” has accelerated, although it remains short of what is required. 21 months in, 292,851 jobs have been created, equating to a run-rate of 13,945 per month. Despite being positive, this falls short of the 16,667 level required when the Coalition took office.
As a result of the poor start the required run rate now stands at 18,132 jobs per month. That’s not unassailable, particularly given the economy has generated on average 20,111 jobs per month so far in 2015. If that pace can continue the government’s jobs pledge will be fulfilled — just.
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